Inflation 通货膨胀
Inflation is the increase of “Goods” or “Services” over time. The recording of the increase in prices over the year is called a “Price Index”. For this project we will work with the Consumer Price Index or CPI for China. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is measured by calculating the increase in price for a selection of goods and services for a typical consumer.
通货膨胀是指随着时间流逝“商品”或“服务”的增值。反映各个时期商品价格水准变动情况的指数叫“物价指数”。在本项目中，我们将做关于消费者物价指数即CPI。消费者物价指数（CPI）指在一定时期内居民所消费商品及服务项目的价格水平变动趋势。
The processes of calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is very complicated. Governments employ entire departments of professionals to keep track of their countries annual inflation. We will look a the basic process behind calculating a Consumer Price Index (CPI) in this project.
计算消费者物价水平变动过程是非常复杂的。政府雇佣一个专业团队来记录该国每年的通货膨胀情况。在后面的计算消费者物价指数（CPI）的设计中我们会对该基本程序有所了解。
Everything will be compared to a base year (point of reference) when calculating a Consumer Price Index (CPI). Then the cost will be recorded for each year after the base year.
在计算消费者物价指数（CPI）时所以的参数都要参照一个基准年（基准点）。从基准年开始，以后每一年的指数都要被记录下来。
To determine inflation a simple formula is used. (“Final Value” subtracted by “Initial Value” divided by the “Initial Value” and then multiplied by 100 to convert the number from a decimal to a percentage. )
计算通货膨胀要用到一个公式（“终值”减“初始值”再除以“初始值”最后乘以100从而把小数变成一个百分数。）
On the computer the formula will look like {(F-I)/I}*100
在电脑上该公式是这样的： {(F-I)/I}*100
Example 例证:
If this year the cost for a selection of goods and services cost ¥1,000, we would then use the exact goods and services to compare each year after. The first year is our “Base” year and the value of ¥1,000 is our “Initial” price.
如果今年居民商品和服务项目的消费是￥1,000，那么我们将会用同样的商品和服务来比较每一年的变动。第一年也就成为我们所说的“基准年”，而价值￥1,000则是“初始值”。
We then record the cost for our goods and services for several years. The next year the cost for the same goods and service is ¥1,037, and in year 3 the cost is ¥1,052.
接下来我们要记录几年里的商品和服务的消费了。第二年同样商品和服务的消费是￥1,037，第三年的消费是￥1,050。
| Year 年 | Cost 消费 |
|---|---|
| Year 1 | CN¥1,000 |
| Year 2 | CN¥1,037 |
| Year 3 | CN¥1,052 |
Calculating Inflation 计算通货膨胀:
| Year 1 – Year 2 | Year 2 – Year 3 |
|---|---|
| Inflation = {(1037-1000)/1000}*100% Inflation = {37/1000}*100% Inflation = {.037}*100% Inflation = 3.7% | Inflation = {(1052-1037)/1037}*100% Inflation = {15/1037}*100% Inflation = {.014}*100% Inflation = 1.4% |
In first year we had an inflation rate of 3.7% and in the second year our inflation rate was 1.4%. In our example the average inflation over the recording period is 2.55%. Now that we have an average inflation rate we can start making predictions of how much things may increase in price in the future.
第一年的通货膨胀是3.7%；第二年的通货膨胀是1.4%。在上例中，平均通货膨胀是2.55%。既然我们已经知道了通货膨胀率了，那么我们就可以预测将来物价上升的情况了。
Estimate the price increase for the following three years. We will need to multiple the cost in year 3 by our average inflation rate of 2.55%. Once we have calculated the estimated value for the forth year we can multiply the forth year by our average inflation. We can repeat this process method as many times as necessary to estimate the value many years from now.
估算接下来三年的物价上升情况。将第三年的消费乘以平均通货膨胀率2.55%。一旦我们估算出了第四年的消费，接着把第四年的消费乘以平均通货膨胀率2.55%，以此类推。
| Year 年 | Cost 消费 |
| Year 4 | 1,052 X 2.55% = ______ |
| Year 5 | ______ X 2.55% = ______ |
| Year 6 | ______ X 2.55% = ______ |
If we wanted to calculate many years in the future using this method would be very time consuming. However we can use exponential math equations to easily calculate the estimated value with inflation of goods or services far into the future.
如果想计算未来很多年份的消费，使用该方法会节省很多时间。但是我们可以用指数运算来轻松地估算未来商品和服务通货膨胀的情况。
The formula Pn=P(1+i)n allows you to calculate the estimated easily for any year in the future.
该公式 Pn=P(1+i)n 可以估算未来任何年份的消费。
- Pn = Total Estimated Cost 总预估消费
- P = Base cost of the goods or services 商品或服务的基准消费
- i = Inflation rate 通货膨胀率
- n = Number of years in the future we are estimating for 预估年数
On the computer this would look like Pn=P*(1+i)^n
在电脑上该公式是这样的： Pn=P*(1+i)^n
Below is a chart of the recorded inflation rate in China over a 15 year period starting in 1995 and finishing in 2010. Use this information when completing you assignment.
下面是中国从1995年至2010年记录通货膨胀率的表格。利用该表格完成以下问题。
China’s Annual inflation Rate | 中国的年度通胀率
| Year 年 | Inflation Rate 通货膨胀率 |
|---|---|
| China 1995 | 17.07% |
| China 1996 | 8.33% |
| China 1997 | 2.81% |
| China 1998 | -0.78% |
| China 1999 | -1.4% |
| China 2000 | 0.35% |
| China 2001 | 0.73% |
| China 2002 | -0.73% |
| China 2003 | 1.13% |
| China 2004 | 3.84% |
| China 2005 | 1.78% |
| China 2006 | 1.65% |
| China 2007 | 4.82% |
| China 2008 | 5.97% |
| China 2009 | -0.72% |
| China 2010 | 3.17% |
Project 任务
Look at the inflation rate for China from the year 1995 until the year 2010. Over this 15 year period the inflation rate went up and down. When estimating far into the future it is very important to work with as much information as available to improve accuracy.
看上表中国1995年至2010年的通货膨胀率。在这15年期间，通货膨胀率是起伏变化的要想估算未来的消费，掌握精准的信息是非常重要的。
- According to the information, what is the average inflation rate for China?
根据该表格，中国的平均通胀率是多少？ - What do you buy often? How much does it cost?
你经常购买的物品是什么？多少钱？ - Calculate the estimated cost of this product ten years from now.
估算从现在起10年后该物品的价格。 - Estimated the cost of 5 different items will cost in ten years. Use the space below. An example is provided.
按照以下例子，在空白处估算10年后5种不同物品的价格。
Tooth Paste 牙膏 ¥35.00
- Pn=P(1+i)n
- Pn=35(1+0.03)10
- Pn=35(1.03)10
- Pn=35(1.34)
- Pn=46.9
The estimated cost will be ¥46.9
估价为￥46.9
Reference 参考:
“http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/china/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-china.aspx.” Historic inflation China – CPI inflation. Triami Media BV in cooperation with HomeFinance, 2013.